Michael Pettis: Why The Latest Chinese Economic Numbers Were Clearly Bad News
On Wednesday night, China came out with a slew of fresh economic data, and at least the headlines looked good.
Who could complain about GDP growth of 10.7%?
The only concern, perhaps, was that too-rapid growth would compel the central bank to act more aggressively on tightening, which is emerging as a serious worry.
Michael Pettis, a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, and an all-around Chinese financial expert, points to another angle: Much of the surge was due to fixed-asset investment and industrial production.
In other words, China’s growth is still a government-stimulus story. “No one has a clue as to what will happen when the government pulls back,” Pettis writes.
And though this helps smoothe things over in the short term, this actually creates a long-term problem for the country, because all this investment means more overcapacity and more exposure to the rest of the world for demand. If that doesn’t materialize, the hard landing will be
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about 6 months ago
If it's run by an American program, you will probably go from late August/early September to right before Christmas, and then right after the Chinese New Year (next year is January 26th) to four months after that (so late May/early June)
If it's a Chinese program the second semester will be the same, but the first semester will start in late September and go until right before the Chinese New Year. The Chinese don't celebrate Christmas so they don't have to let you out for it.