Santa Rosa agent Pam Buda tenatively is calling a bottom to the Sonoma County housing market as tracked by the median sales price. Actually, she thinks the bottom was last February, as she pointed out last March:

Year over year the median Sonoma County home price dropped 5% to $359,000. However, the apparent bottom for this market (whether a V, U or W is yet to be determined) was in February when the median price was $315,000. Some of my smart buyer clients (you know who you are) are happily ensconced in homes they bought in January and February, sensing the (a?) bottom had arrived. We (please forgive a pat on the back here) called it in March. The price increase is being driven by the shortage of entry level listings and multiple offer bidding wars driving what inventory is out there up in price. Prices at the upper ranges ($800,000 and up, particularly over a million dollars) are very soft.

I think a key letter is missing: an “L”.

V, U and W all imply some sort of housing recovery. That’s not going to happen IMHO. At best, the low end of the market stays where it’s at, while the high end of the market continues to come down to earth. More likely, we’re headed for an L followed by another L the next line down. All housing prices continue to fall and do so for a number of years. Once we hit the bottom that’s where we stay.

Readers of this blog know the reasoning behind this prediction. The government in currently insuring upwards of 90% of home mortgages (FHA, Fannie, Freddie, etc.), while interest rates are at historical lows. All good things come to an end and so will these two key ingredients that are keeping the housing market on life support. It’s only a matter of time before the FHA needs a bailout. At that point 3.5% down becomes 20% down while real estate agents will no longer get their commissions subsidized by the federal government. Same thing goes for interest rates. The Fed announced yesterday that they will end their MBS purchases in March and will not increase the size of the program. Translation: mortgage rates are heading higher.

A near term driver is going to be foreclosures coming on the market this winter. Bloomberg just ran an article predicting that 7 million new foreclosures will drive home prices lower (via www.Patrick.net).

What does that look like locally? Here is a visual of Windsor showing 250 homes that have entered the first stages of foreclosure but are NOT yet owned by the bank (via ForeclosureRadar). As banks begin to foreclose and then dump this inventory on the market there will be more declines to come throughout Sonoma County.

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