Posts tagged rapid pace
British Think Tank Warns Of A Five-Year Stealth Decline For UK Property
Jul 28th
Britain’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) believes that British housing prices will fall over the next five years, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), out to 2015.
This equates to an 8% decline per year.
NIESR’s figures show that although average house prices are expected to rise from £194,235 last year to £213,091 in 2015, they would need reach £231,000 to keep pace with inflation. As a result, average households will be £28,000 out of pocket.
Simon Kirby, a NIESR research fellow, said: “While we have assumed the housing market remains stable, house prices could decline at a more rapid pace.”
Families have already been hit by falling house prices. They crashed 19.3 per cent during the recession, according to Nationwide and have yet to recover to pre-crisis levels despite a 10 per cent bounce. Mr Kirby said that weak bank lending would restrain house price growth.
NIESR’s housing outlook came as it warned that a double-dip recession is more likely following the coalition’s emergency Budget. The probability of a full year of negative economic growth has risen from 14 per cent to 19 per cent as a result of the extra £40bn of spending cuts and tax rises unveiled by the Chancellor last month, it said.
This is a particularly interesting view given that it incorporates the potential for high U.K. inflation. Basically, housing prices may appear relatively stable, but if inflation is rising rapidly, then real prices will decline. They’re warning of a stealth-devaluation, if you will.
The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part V
Jul 28th
There has been a lot of talk lately about systemic risk, a concept that is not well-understood. Let me simplify it for you. Anytime debt grows in an area of the economy at a rapid pace, there is an unstable situation to be avoided. If you are a portfolio manager at such a time, you must take the tough decision and underweight the area of the bond market that is growing the fastest. That is not easy to do, particularly because that is where most of the new issues are coming from.
I wrote a piece called Fruits and Vegetables Versus Assets in Demand, where I said:
There is a way in which fruits and vegetables and financial products are opposites: when quantities are high for fruits and vegetables, quality is high, and prices are low. With financial products, when issuance is high, quality is low, and pricing is expensive, leading to poor future returns from lower yields, and higher future defaults. I offer this for what it is worth, but is there something more to it, than the seeming oppositeness? Why are they opposites?
I had a follow-up piece here that answered the questions. It takes time and effort to farm, but financial products can be whipped up easily in any season.
In the present environment, this would mean avoiding government debt. If you believe in inflation coming you can buy the short end, and if deflation, the long end, but aside from that, the ability of the US Government to repay is not growing as rapidly as their debts are.
When I came on the scene in 2001 as a corporate bond manager, there were several areas of the bond market that had a lot of issuance: autos and telecommunications. I began selling the weaker bonds in those areas; I sold all of my auto bonds (including GMAC and FMCC) except for $10 million of an illiquid issue of a Dutch Ford subsidiary, and limited my holdings in Telecom bonds to the Baby Bells.
That took effort. Debt-based industry expansions rarely work out well. If the idea was that promising, it could be funded with higher cost equity, rather than debt.
Now, what would this rule have meant 2004-2007? Avoid financials, especially banks, S&Ls and mortgage companies. Though financials are always a large part of issuance, they were even larger then.
I can hear some manager saying, “But I can’t vary that much against the index! That’s an impossible strategy for big fixed income managers to follow.” I understand, there are tradeoffs in investing. If I am underweight, someone else must be overweight versus the index. Someone has to absorb all of the paper of the hot sector; don’t let that be you.
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Credit analysts understand the creditworthiness of bonds. What are portfolio managers good for? Portfolio managers should grasp three things at least:
- Portfolio composition versus the needs of the client.
- The trading dynamics of the marketplace, and whether a bond might be temporarily mispriced.
- The dirty details of a bond. What are the covenants, terms, etc.
I will handle #1 at a later point in time. As for #2, a good portfolio manager attempts to explain to his credit analyst why he is ignoring his opinion for a time, because the market for a given bond seems promising in the short run. There is momentum in bond pricing, and it is better to sell a little late rather than early.
As for point #3, it is the responsibility of the portfolio manager to understand all the special features of a given bond, and why there are pricing differences across the bonds of a given main obligor (borrower), taking advantage of those differences when they get out of whack.
Having been a mortgage bond manger, where document review was a bigger part of what we did, in the minority of corporate bonds that need that review, there is a lot of value to be added. Often I would review a complex prospectus to find out a big negative: amid all of the legalese, the bonds were as secure, or more so than the senior unsecured of the main obligor.
In a time of panic, those insights are golden, because other managers toss out illiquid bonds that they don’t fully understand.
Even understanding what a put bond is worth is valuable; after deducting yield because of the illiquidity of the smaller put bond issue. The same is true of trust preferreds, preferred stock, premium bonds versus discount bonds, call features, etc.
The portfolio manager has to balance all of those factors off, along with client factors, in order to manage the assets properly.
I’ll talk more about client factors in a later post; those are always fun, or at least controversial.
DBRS Sees More Changes Coming to HAMP
May 18th
More changes could come to the Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that would slow down the foreclosure process in an attempt to qualify more borrowers for mortgage modifications, according to commentary released by DBRS, the Toronto-based credit rating agency.
“The findings noted by the Congressional Oversight Panel [COP] may cause further expansion of the upcoming HAMP requirements. These requirements prohibit the referral of a loan to foreclosure until a borrower is evaluated and found ineligible for HAMP, in addition to making it mandatory to consider principal forgiveness on loans with greater than 115% [loan-to-value] LTV,” DBRS said.
“As a result, DBRS will continue to monitor the industry for its use of modifications as well as its efforts to implement successful foreclosure mitigation programs,” Mezzanotte added.
The latest COP report, issued in mid-April, said HAMP lacked drive, and despite changes to the program to help additional distressed borrowers, the Treasury Department’s response continues to lag well behind the pace of the crisis.
“In the final reckoning, the goal itself seems small in comparison to the magnitude of the problem,” the report said.
Those changes include opening the program up to borrowers with negative equity and the recently unemployed. Despite the changes, foreclosures continue at a rapid pace. While housing prices are stabilizing in many regions, home values in several markets continue to fall sharply.
DBRS believes further changes could come to the program, even as the Treasury Department reports mortgage servicers participating in HAMP converted more than 68,000 trial modifications into permanent status in April, pushing the total to 299,092.
While servicers conducted almost 13% more conversions in April than the 57,000 in March, it’s still less than the 72,000 permanent modifications in February, the highest month in the history of the program.
It’s been more than a year since the program started and less than 10% of the Obama Administration’s goal of 3m to 4m permanent modifications has been met. The program is currently scheduled to expire in December 2012.
Write to Austin Kilgore.
Loans For Unemployed Tenant – Magic Portion For Removing Tenancy
May 14th
Loans for unemployed tenant can be availed by you with the rapid pace because these loans are provided by online lenders directly into the bank account of the borrower. Online service works for you as kill two birds with one stone.
Residential Property in Thane Developing Rapidly!
May 3rd
Thane is a highly developing city that lies in proximity to the financial capital of the country, Mumbai. The economy of the city had witnessed a slowdown just like other cities across the world during recession but it has started picking up fast. Real estate in Thane is developing at a rapid pace with loads of residential and commercial properties being developed.
"OTC"STOCKSHARK ISSUES TRADE ALERT FOR "AAPH" AMERICAN PETRO-HUNTER , INC.
Apr 14th
“OTC” StockShark is very excited to bring our
members this hugely successful company..
American Petro-Hunter , Inc.
(OTCBB:AAPH)
Wow , Take a look at “AAPH” …This company
is moving at a rapid pace..Do not miss this
huge opportunity…”AAPH” is one of those
Oil & Gas plays that is already drilling with
revenues in the bank…Like , I just mentioned
do not miss the upcoming events coming
from “AAPH” …Chances are You have already
heard of “AAPH” ..Well , even if You have not
we strongly believe this is a perfect entry point
for “AAPH”..Trading in the .70 cent range…
“AAPH” was over the huge dollar mark just as
recently as last month…That’s right “AAPH”
traded over the dollar mark for most of March..
Profit taking has put our members in a great
position for quick profit potential….Take a look
below at the intro information on “AAPH” and
quickly put “AAPH” on your radar….This is one
of those companies that do not fall into our laps
every day..Do not miss this opportunity !!!!
About Us
American Petro-Hunter was founded on January 24, 1996. The company is duly incorporated in the State of Nevada.
The Company’s common shares are listed for trading on the electronic over-the-counter bulletin board (OTCBB) market in the United States and trades under the symbol “AAPH.”.
Vision
The Company believes alternative sources of energy won’t become a significant or practical solution for years to come and that the country must support increased domestic drilling in order to capitalize upon our existing technical supremacy and the unearthing of significant and important new finds here at home.
American Petro-Hunter solidly supports “growth by the drill bit” as the only “home grown solution” to produce more American oil and gas that will stabilize gasoline and energy prices. The number of projects currently available for acquisition is extensive and American Petro-Hunter plans an aggressive campaign towards targeting production from smaller, underutilized fields via farm-ins and outright purchases.
Mission
To explore, develop and produce oil and gas reserves in the continental USA thereby assisting our nation in reducing its dependence on foreign oil. “America First” and “in our back yard” are the motto’s we will apply to each and every project we acquire. Any partnerships will only be with other likeminded companies also desiring to drill America out of these tough economic times by using American workers and US technologies to target, and exploit America’s vast wealth of untapped petroleum reserves.
Goals
In the short-term, American Petro-Hunter will acquire quality exploration projects in targeted jurisdictions favorable for near-term production close to existing infrastructure. American Petro-Hunter will aggressively search for existing production (Proved Developed Producing /PDP) from smaller, undervalued or underutilized properties that show high promise for probable undeveloped reserves (PUDs). Intermediate-term goals are focused on production through drilling multiple projects. The “basket” of projects include a mix of higher risk and higher reward targets as well as stable, low risk targets. American Petro-Hunter plans on building the company into a 500-1000 BOE producer in the next 2 to 3 years. Long-term goals are to take the company through exploration, development and production in excess of the 1000 BOE level in the aim of creating an inviting target for merger or acquisition by one of the majors. American Petro-Hunter will strive to book value in reserves such that the net asset value of the company would warrant a senior board listing allowing funding to acquire the larger, most prolific projects both on and off shore.
American Petro-Hunter has successfully drilled the first of a series of wells proposed for the Rooney oil project located in southwestern Ford County, Kansas, 20 miles due south of Dodge City off US Highway 283. The acreage block presently contains 8 sections totaling 5,120 acres in T-29-S, R-24 & 25W Ford County.
Management considers this acreage to be a “core” land holding, one that future development can provide the basis for the requisite BOE production necessary to meet intermediate and long term goals. The Rooney Project is directly adjacent to the north edge of an existing oil and gas production area. An analog well designated as 3-30-25W in the pool has cumulatively produced 344,448 Barrels of oil and 933,622 MCF gas. There are multiple wells within 2 miles of our acreage that have produced in the 35,000 to 40,000 barrel range from discrete sand channels.
The #24-1 Double H well was drilled in late November of 2009 and encountered a 12 foot pay zone that produced excellent quality 44 degree oil in the tubing up to the surface from 5,400 feet of depth with fluid test results returning 99% oil cut. The strong down-hole reservoir pressure combined with the initial data results have allowed engineers to calculate that the well should be capable of producing over 200 barrels per day.
After a review of the 3D seismic data in conjunction with the electronic logs, the potential barrels of oil associated to the #24-1 Double H well and underlying oil pool are currently estimated at 500,000 barrels and the Company feels the potential for the newly discovered reservoir is 3,000,000 barrels of oil.
American Petro-Hunter is now preparing to commence offset drilling operations at the Rooney Project in Kansas. The Company participated in a 3D seismic shoot this summer which has provided ample data regarding the potential on the acreage. The shoot was successful as multiple targets have been identified from the recently interpreted 3D seismic across the entire acreage.
The partners and operator have identified up to ten promising targets and are readying plans to move ahead with the first in a series of 5 wells chosen as the best candidates heading into 2010. The first offset location is being readied and, if successful, an ongoing multi well program is envisaged immediately thereafter
AMERICAN PETRO-HUNTER has executed a Purchase and Sale Agreement with the vendors of the “Sacramento Gas Project” whereby American Petro-Hunter has acquired a 25% working interest in the play. The project is located west of Modesto in the Central Valley of California, near Sacramento. Potential Recoverable Reserves have been calculated to be 42 BCF at a depth of 7,400 feet within sands that are indicated by 2D seismic to be in excess of 50 feet of gross pay.
Estimates by the play generator, a private third party engineering group, is that if the pay zone is 100% gas filled and the well is brought into commercial production that an IPR (initial production rate) of 5,000 Mcf per day may be achieved. American Petro-Hunter would anticipate similar rates to commercial wells in the region at analog fields that produce on a daily basis between 2,000 to 4,000 Mcf per day. Natural Gas wells in these analog field’s exhibit long life, relatively stable rates of production and predictable decline.
The Central Valley in the Sacramento region of California is called “California’s Gas Country” and nearby fields contains some of the most prolific gas reservoirs in the Sacramento Valley. They have accounted for over 400 BCF of gas production to-date. In proximity to the prospects are prolific gas fields such as Union Island (271 BCF), McMullin Ranch (63 BCF) and Vernalis (103 BCF). The project, if commercially viable would produce gas that would be purchased by PG&E Citygate that supplies gas to the Capital region of Sacramento and is used in electrical power generation in the area. PG&E Citygate prices are some of the highest in the country and prices can be found at outlets such as www.intelligencepress.com.
Investor Quick Info
* AAPH has acquired working interests in quality oil and gas projects currently focusing on gas in California and oil in Kansas
* AAPH has drilled a successful commercial well on its first endeavor in Kansas.
* AAPH has aligned itself with prudent, experienced and effective oil and gas professionals as project operators.
* AAPH bases its acquisitions on a mix of acceptable risk, high reward and short payback in historically successful and productive regions.
* AAPH plans to “grow by the drill bit” in “our back yard” as we believe the US Domestic oil and gas market will continue to grow in the face of alternative energy which is deemed to be years from maturity.
* AAPH has the stated aim of becoming a 500 BOE producer within 18 months.
* AAPH plans to invest in projects with manageable participation expenditures so as to minimize share dilution.
* AAPH strives to build stakeholder value by prudent management that integrates a “shareholder first” philosophy.
* AAPH will be open, honest and transparent on all projects so as to ensure stakeholders receive accurate, up-to-date project information on a consistent basis
* AAPH will be a good corporate citizen, ensuring our operations meet or exceed all regulatory standards for the environment
* AAPH plans to continue the “hunt for petroleum” as it believes the answer to our reliance on foreign energy is “right next door.”
Remember we suggest you always do your own due diligence and seek the advice of your broker.
We here at “OTC” StockShark do our very best to bring you companies that have the potential to turn our members
a profit…Speaking of profits it is always important to take them when you can , even a small profit is better than a kick in the teeth…
Do not forget to add us to your contacts so we do not end up in your spam box , Thank you……
STOCKSHARK , LLC is OTC STOCKSHARK.COM Disclosure: StockShark , LLC has been compensated $5,000 cash from a third party for market awareness coverage of “AAPH” .. StockShark , LLC is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer. StockShark , LLC makes no recommendation that the purchase of securities of companies profiled in this web site is suitable or advisable for any person, or that an investment in such securities will be profitable. In general, given the nature of the companies profiled and the lack of an active trading market for their securities, investing in such securities is highly speculative and carries a high degree of risk.
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Sky Rocketing Prices In Noida Real Estate
Apr 8th
Real estate in Noida has been progressing with a rapid pace ever since the industrial boom entered the city. With the coming up of huge organizations, the need for well trained and highly skilled workforce naturally went high. Next, in order to accommodate the professionals coming to work in the city, a huge demand for residential property in Noida had risen. The development of housing of all kinds- apartments, residential complexes, independent houses, villas, flats, etc. were needed to fulfill
